Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) has solidified her position as the successor to Angela Merkel, but as the political situation evolves, it remains to be seen just how useful, or concrete, this position will continue to be moving forward. At the time of writing, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is in a state of frenzy and turmoil. Fresh from a heavy battering in the 2019 European parliamentary elections, and facing the prospect of seeing an ascendant Alternatives for Germany (AfD) win the majority of the Brandenburger and Saxon vote in the upcoming state elections (1 September 2019), many within the CDU/CSU are reeling. It has been speculated through early 2019 that Angela Merkel would be willing to abdicate early, perhaps even as early as the end of 2019, far away from the next planned dissolution of the Bundestag in 2021. However, disaster continually strikes the CDU/CSU, and it remains to be seen if the well-concocted plans that Merkel and her successor have come up with will ever bear fruit.Â
From the very beginning, AKK has refused to mince her words. In April, she made transphobic jokes on national television for a German public holiday/festival, then doubled down and called Germans "the most uptight people in the world" when she was criticized for it. Before her appointment by the party as Merkel's successor, she was notable for her religious conservatism even in relation to her party at large: her opposition to marriage equality in 2005, her criticism of removal of Christian iconography from Saarbrücker government buildings in 2016, and her objection to a reform regarding restrictions on advertisement for abortion services in 2018 (paragraph 219a). The last one is particularly notable because this was half a year prior to her appointment as Merkel's successor, and the proposal to reform paragraph 219a was almost universally supported by all except religiously conservative politicians.Â
It's not hard to see that these statements are tailor-made to appeal to the conservative elements of German society, that are widely agreed to have fled from the moderate CDU/CSU to the more extreme AfD. In fact, it is generally agreed that the reason why Merkel had politically maneuvered AKK into her position as successor in the first place was to contest the electoral territory claimed by the AfD, without shifting the party as a whole too far from its center-right position. She never really cared for politically correct speech, for she never expected that she would ever face a loss in confidence from her religious and traditional German voter base for it.Â
That was, of course, before her official reaction to a German YouTuber, Rezo, who went viral attacking the CDU/CSU; he attacked the CDU/CSU (and its partner in crime, the SPD), for facilitating the implementation of policies which worsened already existing economic problems within Germany, such as the wealth and gender gaps, as well as badly calculated foreign policy. You can find the original video (in glorious German) here. Completely underestimating the power of digital stars and the youth, AKK replied tartly: "I asked myself why we weren't for that matter responsible for the seven plagues in ancient Egypt."
The EU elections came and went, and the indelible impact of Rezo's video was felt. Many voters had fled the CDU/CSU and SPD, and their primary sanctuary was the Greens; heretofore unthinkable in German politics. The Greens gained so much that they became the second largest group of MEPs that would be sent to represent Germany.Â
Think for a second, what AKK could do in this situation. She could accept the criticisms laid down by Rezo and pledge to improve the CDU/CSU's performance in the future. She could make vague promises that mean nothing, and continue on her course. She could publicly humble herself in any way to the situation that her party is currently in. Instead, she chooses to criticize Rezo as politically biased, and suggests looking at how to control digital speech in the same way that analog speech could be controlled. Her Green opponents, already giddy from their massive electoral victory, probably fainted from joy when they attacked her for suggesting censorship. Where this electoral shock would have been a matter for the CDU to deal with as a whole, AKK bravely stood up to suggest what was handily interpreted as a form of censorship by her very thankful political opponents. Much like Tsar Nicholas II assuming official leadership of the Imperial Russian Army in World War I, she immediately became the face of the entire fiasco. Rather than people simply assuming that the CDU had performed badly, she quickly became accused of harboring anti-democratic and autocratic sentiments herself, causing her popularity to take yet another hit. One wonders how many more hits like this she can take.Â
On June 24th, Annagret Kramp-Karrenbauer stood across from the resurrected political figure she thought she had already defeated. Yet, Friedrich Merz was back, and this time, she was to work with Merz. In the party elections last December where she had very narrowly defeated Merz, Kramp-Karrenbauer and Merz had presented two contrasting visions for the future of the CDU. Kramp-Karrenbauer, a religious conservative, was nevertheless committed to the idea of having the CDU continue to walk the middle ground. Merz, a slick capitalist by nature, suggested that the CDU move over to the right on economic and social issues.Â
Merz was the leader of the CDU/CSU Bundestag group from 2000-2002, and had disappeared from active politics in 2009. Yet, he smelled the chance to make the political comeback of his lifetime - and as nothing less than the successor of the very individual who had ousted him, Angela Merkel (she had competed with him successfully for leadership of the party). However, in December he narrowly lost the vote for party leader to AKK in a runoff election (a third candidate, Health Minister Jens Spahn, had been eliminated in the first round), and although Merz departed the party meeting prematurely, he was far from politically exhausted; his ambition to become someone of note again held strong. Many believe that Merz still seeks the Chancellorship, but he is minimally aiming for a ministerial post, and as quickly as possible, for he will be 64 years old in autumn.
While Merz has been able to keep his ambitions on the down-low, his supporters have shown much less restraint. In fact, the attacks against Economy Minister Peter Altmaier shows that Merz is specifically angling for that position himself. However, Altmaier is one of the closest trustees of Merkel, and any attack on him is indirectly an attack on her. The Werteunion (a caucus of socially conservative and economically libertarian CDU/CSU members) are probably the most outspoken on their desire for the Chancellor to leave her post early.
This is where it gets infuriating for Merz: as long as Merkel remains Chancellor, his plans remain unfulfilled. AKK can attempt to promote Minister Merz all she wants, but she still has to be the Chancellor before any of this can come to pass. It is therefore unsurprising that AKK has been raising the pressure on Merkel to clear her post as quickly as possible. This is a large challenge for her: on one hand, a close personal relationship with Merkel that it would be expedient to keep. On the other hand, political and constitutional hurdles to the Chancellorship, exacerbated by Merkel's dogged determination to stay in her post barring any significant reason to call new elections. With the only alternative being to try passing a motion of no confidence against Merkel, it seems that Merkel will hold on to her Chancellorship until the end of her term in 2021.
What do you do when you have a powerful political rival who's masquerading as your adviser, waiting just for the one moment where he can pounce on you and seize power, in a political system which day by day disadvantages your political faction, and in particular you? You seek to entrench those losses as quickly as possible - which is what AKK sought to do. Ironically, while Merz eyes her post, he is still willing to settle for the very powerful position of Economy Minister, and as such their interests are aligned in pressurizing Merkel to abdicate as quickly as possible, personal relationship be damned. In response, Merkel seems to have given up on AKK herself, and there is speculation that Merz may actually snatch the rug from right under his prey. It's a vicious cycle - AKK seeks ways to increase pressure on Merkel to leave her position, which causes her political issues because of careless statements and actions, which empowers her not-so-subordinate, which panics her and convinces her to pile even more pressure on Merkel.Â
The past 6 months have been a pure headache for AKK, and she isn't even really in power yet. One can really only wonder if she can make it to the finish line of 2021, unscathed, and with her position unmolested. Or, if she manages to successfully seize the Chancellorship early, whether she will be able to survive politically considering that all through the month of July 2019, polling has shown that the Greens will soon beat the CDU/CSU in vote haul for the Bundestag. It will be the greatest political comedy of the decade if the Merkel era ends with the wailing and thrashing of her picked successor, as the Chancellorship gets snatched out of AKK's hands by the Greens, spoiling the grandiose political ambitions of everyone in the most powerful political party since 1950.Â